Uma ubheka ngaphandle, izinkampani zamamodeli obuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI) zibonakala zenza inzuzo enkulu, kodwa abaphila kahle ngempela kungenzeka kube abahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu abasekela lezi zinkampani.
Ucwaningo lwakamuva lwe-Barclays Bank luhlukanise indlela inzuzo eyabiwa ngayo ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-AI. Ucwaningo luthole ukuthi kuwo wonke ama-dollar ayi-100 emali engenayo edalwa yinkampani yamamodeli (qaphela: ngezinga lokushintshisana lamanje cishe kungama-yuan angu-674.6), ama-dollar angu-35 kuya kwangu-40 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-236.1 kuya kwangu-269.8) aya ezinkundleni ezintathu ezinkulu zamafu njengezindleko zamandla okubala okwenza inference: i-Amazon AWS, i-Microsoft Azure ne-Google GCP.
Abahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu bangathola inzuzo yokusebenza engama-dollar ayi-10 kuya kwangu-20 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-67.5 kuya kwangu-134.9) kule ngxenye yemali engenayo, okuhambisana nezinga lenzuzo yokusebenza elifinyelela ku-35% kuya ku-45%. Lesi siphetho sivela embikweni wocwaningo lwe-Barclays mayelana ne-unit economics yemboni ye-AI, owakhishwa ngo-Agasti 28, futhi sivumela umphakathi ukuthi ubone ngokucacile ukuthi inani ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-AI liya kuphi.
Umbiko uphinde uveze ukuthi izinga lenzuzo ye-inference ekhokhelwayo lamalabhorethri e-AI lenyuke kakhulu, lisuka ngaphezudlwana kuka-10% ngo-2025 laya ku-50% kuya ku-65% noma ngaphezulu ngo-2026; izinga lenzuzo elikhulu elilungisiwe lenyuke ngamaphuzu angu-30 kuya kwangu-50 uma liqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.
Umhlaziyi we-Barclays uRoss Sandler uveze ukuthi izici ezinkulu ezikhuphule kakhulu izinga lenzuzo ngamakhasimende ezinkampani kanye nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “ama-agentic workflows”; le mikhiqizo isiphenduke imikhiqizo “okumele ithengwe” emakethe.
Ubuye wathi izinga lenzuzo langempela lamalabhorethri e-AI kungenzeka selingaphezu kwezilinganiso zombiko. Nokho, njengoba ukuncintisana phakathi kwamamodeli aphambili kuya ngokuya kushuba futhi ukunikezwa kwamandla okubala kuqhubeka nokwanda, kulindeleke ukuthi le nkomba ekugcineni yehle kancane kancane.
Ukuze kusizwe abatshalizimali baqonde kangcono umehluko wezezimali phakathi kwamalabhorethri e-AI ahlukene, i-Barclays yakha amalabhorethri amabili e-AI aphambili okucatshangwa ukuthi akhona ukuze iwafanise.
Imali engenayo “yeLabhorathri A” ivela cishe ngo-70% ku-API, kanti u-30% uvela ekubhaliseni; “iLabhorathri B” yona iphambene, njengoba u-80% wemali engenayo uncike ebhizinisini lokubhalisa, kanti i-API yenza u-20% kuphela.
Ngenxa yokuthi ibhizinisi le-API ngokwemvelo linezinga lenzuzo ye-inference eliphezulu kunebhizinisi lokubhalisa, kanye nomehluko endleleni okwabiwa ngayo izindleko zokuqeqesha nasekwabelaneni ngemali engenayo nabalingani, izinga lenzuzo elikhulu elilungisiwe lala malabhorethri amabili liyehluka ngamaphuzu angu-17 amangalisayo: iLabhorathri A cishe ingu-55%, kanti iLabhorathri B ingu-38% kuphela.
Umehluko endleleni okuqinisekiswa ngayo imali engenayo uphinde ukhulise lokhu “kuhlanekezela”.
ILabhorathri A iqinisekisa imali engenayo ye-API engaqondile ngenani eliphelele, kanti iLabhorathri B isebenzisa indlela yenani eliphelele elincishisiwe, futhi kwesinye isikhathi ayifaki nhlobo imali engenayo ye-API engaqondile eqhutshwa ngabalingani bamasu. I-Barclays iqhathanisa lesi simo nomehluko phakathi kwe-Uber ne-Lyft: amabhizinisi awo ayisisekelo acishe afane, kodwa ngenxa yokwehluka endleleni yokubalwa kwezimali, izinombolo ezigcina zivela ezitatimendeni zezezimali zingahluka ngokuphelele.
Umbiko uxwayisa ngokuthi njengoba amalabhorethri e-AI eqala ukudalula izitatimende zezezimali ngokuhambisana ne-General Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), abatshalizimali kudingeka baqale baqonde lo mehluko wokubalwa kwezimali ngaphambi kokuqhathanisa izinkampani, ngaphandle kwalokho kuzoba nzima ukwenza ukuqhathanisa okunengqondo.
Izinga lenzuzo lemigqa yemikhiqizo ehlukene
Ukuhlukanisa ngokwengeziwe imigqa yemikhiqizo ethile kuveza ukuthi imikhiqizo yokubhalisa, njenge-Claude Code ne-Codex, inezinga lenzuzo ye-inference elilinganiselwa cishe ku-70%, okuyisigaba esiphansi kunazo zonke phakathi kwemigqa emithathu emikhulu yemikhiqizo.
Isizathu siwukuthi amalabhorethri e-AI azimisele ukuthwala ingxenye yezindleko zama-token ukuze agcine abasebenzisi. Lezi zinsizakalo zokubhalisa zivame ukukhokhiswa njalo ngenyanga, kanti kubekwa umkhawulo wesabelo sokusetshenziswa. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi muva nje imvamisa yokusethwa kabusha kwesabelo sokusetshenziswa inyuke kakhulu, okungase kubonise ngesikhathi esisodwa ingcindezi amalabhorethri e-AI abhekene nayo ekugcineni abasebenzisi kanye nokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kokusebenza kwamamodeli.
I-API eqondile iyimodeli yebhizinisi yokuqala eyavela kumalabhorethri e-AI, futhi iwumugqa webhizinisi onezinga lenzuzo eliphakeme kakhulu. Amathuluzi onjiniyela afana ne-Cursor ne-Figma akhokhisa ngokuya ngenani lama-token asetshenziswa umsebenzisi. I-Barclays ilinganisela ukuthi izinga lenzuzo ye-inference ye-API manje selingaphezu kuka-80%.
Njengoba ukusebenza kahle kwama-token kumamodeli kuqhubeka nokuthuthuka, okusho ukuthi kudingeka ama-token ambalwa ukuqedela umsebenzi ofanayo, kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo e-API okumenyezelwe, nengqalasizinda yezinsizakalo ze-inference iqhubeka nokuthuthukiswa, ubuchwepheshe obuhlanganisa i-quantization, i-speculative decoding namandla okubala esizukulwane esisha buqhubeka nokuvula amathuba amakhulu enzuzo.
Umbiko ugcizelela ukuthi izinga lenzuzo ye-inference ye-API kwikota yesibili ka-2026 empeleni liphakeme kakhulu kunalokho okuboniswa eshadini, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi kwesinye isikhathi esizayo libuyele ezingeni elijwayelekile.
I-API engaqondile inikeza abasebenzisi bokugcina ulwazi olucishe lufane nolwe-API eqondile, kodwa umsebenzisi nomhlinzeki wezinsizakalo zamafu basungula ubudlelwano bokukhokhisana obuqondile. Njengoba isabelo se-API engaqondile emalini engenayo ephelele yamalabhorethri e-AI siqhubeka nokukhula, umehluko endleleni amalabhorethri ahlukene aqinisekisa ngayo imali engenayo uzokwandisa nakakhulu umehluko ekufanisekeni kwezitatimende zawo zezezimali.
Abahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu bazuza malini ngempela
Ukuhlukanisa ngokwengeziwe ukwakheka kwenzuzo yabahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu kuveza ukuthi kuwo wonke ama-dollar ayi-100 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-674.6) emali engenayo edalwa yilabhorethri ye-AI, iLabhorathri A ihambisana cishe nama-dollar angu-35 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-236.1) emalini engenayo yezinsizakalo zamafu. Ngemva kokukhipha izindleko zengqalasizinda, umhlinzeki wezinsizakalo zamafu angathola inzuzo engaba ama-dollar angu-11.80 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-79.6), okuhambisana nezinga lenzuzo yokusebenza elicishe libe ngu-34%.
Isimo seLabhorathri B sizuzisa kakhulu. Ngenxa yokuba khona kohlelo lokwabelana ngemali engenayo nabalingani bamasu, oluthinta u-20% wemali engenayo futhi lunomkhawulo oqoqekayo, umhlinzeki wezinsizakalo zamafu angathola cishe ama-dollar angu-41 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-276.6) kuyo yonke imali engenayo ye-AI engama-dollar ayi-100 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-674.6) eLabhorathri B, kanti inzuzo ifinyelela kuma-dollar angu-19.10 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-128.8), nezinga lenzuzo yokusebenza lifinyelela ku-47%.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi izinga lenzuzo eliphakeme leLabhorathri B livela ohlelweni lokwabelana ngemali engenayo nabalingani bamasu, oluthinta u-20% wemali engenayo futhi lunomkhawulo oqoqekayo.
I-Barclays igcizelela ukuthi lolu hlelo lokwabelana ngemali engenayo luphakamisa izinga lenzuzo elibonakala ngaphandle kubahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu. Uma lesi sici sisuswa, inzuzo yangempela nge-token ngayinye yabahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu abahambisana nala malabhorethri amabili ayihlukile. Lolu hlelo lokwabelana ngemali engenayo kulindeleke ukuthi lwehle kancane kancane luye ku-zero ngemva kuka-2028.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, imikhiqizo yokubhalisa yama-agent nayo ingadala inani elengeziwe kubahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu. Le mikhiqizo yesikhathi sokusebenza enekhono lokukhumbula isimo ivame ukudinga ukubiza izinsiza zesofthiwe ezisezingeni eliphezulu, njengemininingwane egciniwe, ngakho inani layo ngeyunithi ngayinye yemali engenayo liphezulu. Kwezinye izimo, kungase kube khona nohlelo lokwabelana ngemali engenayo phakathi komhlinzeki wezinsizakalo zamafu nelabhorethri ye-AI, olukhuphula nakakhulu inzuzo yangempela yomhlinzeki wamafu.
Uma kubhekwa ubukhulu bemboni yonke, i-Barclays ilindele ukuthi imali engenayo yamalabhorethri e-AI ikhule isuka kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7 ngo-2024 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-47.221) (cishe ama-dollar aseTaiwan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-220) iye kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-137 ngo-2026 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-924.192) (cishe ama-dollar aseTaiwan ayizigidigidi ezingu-4.3), bese ifinyelela kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-690 ngo-2028 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingu-4.65) (cishe ama-dollar aseTaiwan ayizigidigidi ezingu-21.8).
Uma kubalwa ngokwemali engenayo ephindaphindekayo yonyaka (ARR) eyenziwa ibe yisilinganiso sokuphela konyaka, ijubane lokukhula liba nolaka nakakhulu: kulindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele cishe kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-200 ekupheleni kuka-2026 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingu-1.35) (cishe ama-dollar aseTaiwan ayizigidigidi ezingu-6.3), kanti ekupheleni kuka-2028 kungenzeka lifinyelele kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-782 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingu-5.28) (cishe ama-dollar aseTaiwan ayizigidigidi ezingu-24.7).
Njengamanje, izindleko zokuqeqesha zisengaba ngu-48% wemali engenayo yamalabhorethri e-AI, okusho ukuthi kuyo yonke i-dollar engu-1 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-6.7) yemali engenayo ezuzwa yilabhorethri ye-AI, cishe ihambisana ne-dollar engu-1 (ngezinga lamanje cishe ama-yuan angu-6.7) yemali engenayo yomhlinzeki wezinsizakalo zamafu.
Nokho, isilinganiso sezindleko zokuqeqesha uma siqhathaniswa nemali engenayo sehla ngokushesha, sisuka ku-96% ngo-2024, kulindeleke ukuthi sehle siye ku-35% ngo-2027, bese siye ku-30% ngo-2028.
Okushiwo yilo mkhuba ukuthi njengoba inzuzo yebhizinisi le-inference iqala ukudlula izindleko zokuqeqesha, ikhono eliphelele lamalabhorethri e-AI lokwenza inzuzo lizoqhubeka nokukhula, futhi ingqikithi yemboni izosuka kancane kancane “ekuqeqeshweni okuqhutshwa yikho” iye “ku-inference eqhutshwa yiyo”.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isabelo semali engenayo ye-AI yabahlinzeki bezinsizakalo zamafu uma siqhathaniswa nemali engenayo yamalabhorethri e-AI naso siyehla, sisuka ku-153% ngo-2024 saya ku-90% ngo-2026, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke sehle siye ku-73% ngo-2028.
I-Barclays ilindele ukuthi eminyakeni emibili ezayo isabelo se-AWS, Azure ne-GCP ezindlekweni zamandla okubala zamalabhorethri e-AI sizokwazi ukuhlala sizinzile, kodwa ngo-2028 ukwakheka kwemboni kungase kuguquke.
Ngaleso sikhathi, amaphrojekthi engqalasizinda ye-AI axhaswe ngemali ebolekwe ngokubambisa ngezimpahla azokwethulwa ngokulandelana futhi abe yinketho ethandwa kakhulu amalabhorethri e-AI. Lokhu kusho ukuthi “izikhulu ezintathu” zamanje zamafu zingase ziqale kancane kancane ukulahlekelwa yisabelo emakethe yokuqeqesha ne-inference ye-AI ngesikhathi esisodwa, kanti ukwakheka kwenzuzo kwamanje nakho kuzophinde kuhlelwe kabusha.