Hlola Futhi Ubikezele Idatha Yokugoma ye-DHIS2 Usebenzisa i-Python

Lokho okwenziwa yile phrojekthi

Le phrojekthi ihlinzeka ngenqubo ephelele yokukhipha, ukuhlola, ukuqedela, nokubikezela idatha yanyanga zonke yokugoma evela ku-DHIS2. Isebenza ngemithamo ye-Measles, BCG, ne-OPV1 ebikwe yizifunda eziyi-13 ezinyangeni ezingama-60 eziqediwe, kusukela ngoSepthemba 2021 kuya ku-Agasti 2026.

Idathasethi efakiwe ivela kusistimu yomphakathi ye-DHIS2 demo esebenzisa inguqulo 2.43.1. Iyidatha yesampula futhi ayinayo imininingwane yomuntu siqu noma yasemsebenzini. Ngakho-ke, imiphumela ikhombisa izindlela zokuhlaziya nezinkinga zekhwalithi yedatha; akufanele ihunyushwe njengemiphumela mayelana nezitayela zangempela zezempilo.

Inqubo inezigaba ezine eziyinhloko:

1. Thola idatha yanyanga zonke ehlanganisiwe nge-DHIS2 analytics API noma layisha ikhophi ye-CSV egciniwe.
2. Hlola ukuphelela kokubikwa, ukuphindaphinda konyaka nonyaka, izinguquko ezinkulu, kanye nokushintshana okungenzeka kwezinyanga ezilandelanayo.
3. Linganisa amanani ashodayo ukuze uqeqeshe imodeli, kuyilapho ugcina amafulegi akhomba amanani alinganisiwe.
4. Hlola ukuthi amamodeli okubikezela ayayidlula yini ibhenthimakhi yesizini ephinda inani lonyaka odlule.

Izici ezibalulekile

• Ukukhipha nge-DHIS2 API: Imisebenzi eku-pull_dhis2_data.py ithola futhi ikhiphe izinkomba ezidingekayo.
• Ukuphindaphindeka ngaphandle kwe-inthanethi: Incwadi yokubhalela ifunda dhis2_raw_data.csv ngokuzenzakalela, ngakho ingasebenza ngaphandle koxhumano lwe-inthanethi noma ukungena ngemvume.
• Ukuhlola ukuphelela: Ukuhlaziya kuhlola ukuthi inkomba ngayinye inenani elilodwa lesifunda nenyanga ngayinye.
• Ukutholwa kokuphindaphinda: Kukala ukuthi inani lesifunda lifana kangaki ncamashi nenyanga efanayo yonyaka odlule.
• Ukutholwa kokushintshana: Kumaka izinyanga ezilandelanayo amanani azo abonakala ehleleke ngokuphambene nonyaka odlule.
• Ukugcwalisa izikhala ngendlela ehlelekile: Amanani ashodayo alinganiselwa kusetshenziswa inyanga efanayo yekhalenda kweminye iminyaka noma kusetshenziswa izikhathi zesifunda nezifunda zonke.
• Ukubikezela okuvimbela ukuvuza kwedatha: Ukuqeqesha nokuhlola kwehlukaniswa ngokulandelana kwesikhathi, futhi izikhala zokuqeqesha zigcwaliswa kusetshenziswa idatha yokuqeqesha kuphela.
• Ukuqhathanisa amamodeli: I-seasonal naive, i-SARIMA, ne-gradient boosting kuhlolwa nge-MAE ne-WAPE.

Qonda amafayela ephrojekthi

• DHIS2_Immunisation_Audit_and_Forecast.ipynb: ukuhlaziya okuphelele, okuhlanganisa amashadi, umqondo wokuhlola, ukugcwaliswa kwezikhala, nokubikezela.
• pull_dhis2_data.py: imisebenzi yokuthola izinkomba nokukhipha idatha ku-DHIS2.
• dhis2_raw_data.csv: ikhophi egciniwe esetshenziswa ekusebenzeni okuzenzakalelayo ngaphandle kwe-inthanethi.
• requirements.txt: okuncikile kwamaphakheji e-Python.
• README.md: imibhalo yephrojekthi nemiphumela efingqiwe.

Ukufaka nokulungiselela

1. Thola inqolobane

Clone noma landa inqolobane, bese uvula i-terminal enkombeni yayo eyinhloko. Kunconywa ukusebenzisa indawo ebonakalayo ukuze amaphakheji ephrojekthi ahlale ehlukene kwamanye amaphrojekthi e-Python.

python -m venv .venv

Vula indawo usebenzisa umyalo ofanele isistimu yakho yokusebenza, bese ufaka amaphakheji adingekayo:

pip install -r requirements.txt

2. Qalisa i-Jupyter Notebook

jupyter notebook DHIS2_Immunisation_Audit_and_Forecast.ipynb

Qalisa amaseli encwadi yokubhalela ukusuka phezulu uye phansi. Ngokuzenzakalela, ukuhlaziya kulayisha dhis2_raw_data.csv. Lena indlela elula nethembeke kakhulu yokuhlola inqubo ngoba ayidingi uxhumano lwenethiwekhi noma imininingwane yokungena ku-DHIS2.

3. Lungiselela ukufinyelela okubukhoma ku-DHIS2 ngokuzithandela

Ukuze uthole idatha entsha, setha REFRESH = True kuseli lokuqala lekhodi encwadini yokubhalela. Ikheli leseva nokungena ngemvume kunganikezwa ngeziguquguquko zemvelo DHIS2_URL, DHIS2_USER, kanye ne-DHIS2_PASSWORD.

DHIS2_URL=https://your-dhis2-server.example
DHIS2_USER=your_username
DHIS2_PASSWORD=your_password

Isakhiwo esiqondile sokusetha iziguquguquko zemvelo sincike ku-shell nasesistimini yakho yokusebenza. Ukugcina imininingwane yokungena eziguquguqukweni zemvelo kuyayivimbela ukuthi ifakwe encwadini yokubhalela noma ithunyelwe kusistimu yokulawula ikhodi.

Xhuma kuphela kusistimu ebukhoma ye-DHIS2 ngemvume yomnikazi wedatha. Sebenzisa idatha ehlanganisiwe engenamininingwane ekhomba abantu futhi ulandele izidingo zenhlangano zokuphepha nokuphathwa kwedatha.

Qalisa inqubo eyisisekelo

Isinyathelo 1: Layisha noma thola idatha yanyanga zonke

Umugqa ngamunye umele inkomba eyodwa, isifunda esisodwa, nenyanga eyodwa. Ukuhlaziya okuphelele kusebenzisa izifunda eziyi-13 nezinyanga ezingama-60 kunkomba ngayinye yokugoma. I-Measles ifakiwe kuzo zombili izigaba zokuhlola nokubikezela, kuyilapho i-BCG ne-OPV1 zihlolwa. Izinkomba ze-ANC azifakiwe ngoba kutholakala izinyanga ezingama-20 kuphela, okuyisikhathi esifushane kakhulu sokutadisha izindlela zonyaka kule nqubo.

Nge-REFRESH = False, incwadi yokubhalela ifunda ikhophi egciniwe. Nge-REFRESH = True, isebenzisa imisebenzi yosizo ye-API ukuze ikhiphe imiphumela yamanje kuseva elungiselelwe.

Isinyathelo 2: Hlola ukuphelela kokubikwa

Kunkomba ngayinye, inani elilindelekile lokuqashelwayo libalwa kanje:

13 districts × 60 months = 780 district-months

Isampula inamanani abikiwe angu-725 kunkomba ngayinye yokugoma, kushiye amanani ashodayo angu-55, noma u-7.1%. Ukushoda kuhlelekile kakhulu kunokuba kube okungahleliwe:

• Zonke izikhala zenzeka ngo-Okthoba, Novemba, noma Disemba.
• Amanani ayishumi nanye ayashoda unyaka ngamunye kusukela ku-2021 kuya ku-2025.
• Izifunda ezithintekile yi-Pujehun, Bonthe, Koinadugu, Kono, Bombali, ne-Port Loko.
• I-Pujehun ayinayo imibiko ka-Okthoba kuya ku-Disemba kunoma yimuphi unyaka otholakalayo.
• Awekho amanani ashodayo ngo-2026.

Lokhu kubalulekile ngoba ukuhlanganisa kuphela izifunda ezibikile kwenza isamba sikazwelonke sibonakale siphansi ngokungeyikho. Ezinyangeni ezingu-15 ezithintekile, isamba esingalungisiwe sishoda ngo-14.3% ngokwesilinganiso, futhi sifike ku-17.1%.

Isinyathelo 3: Thola ukuphindaphindeka okuqondile konyaka nonyaka

I-notebook iqhathanisa inyanga-yesifunda ngayinye nenyanga ehambisana nayo ezinyangeni ezingu-12 ngaphambili. Ukuvumelana okuqondile kungavela ngokwemvelo, kodwa ukuphindaphindeka okusabalele akuvamile ezibalweni zezempilo zanyanga zonke zangempela.

Kudatha yokubonisa, u-65.5% wezinyanga-zezifunda zeMeasles ngo-2024, u-92.4% ngo-2025, kanye no-71.2% kusukela kuJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti 2026 kuhambisana ncamashi nonyaka odlule. I-BCG ne-OPV1 zibonisa cishe iphethini efanayo.

Le phethini ibalulekile ekuhumusheni imiphumela. Ifana nedatha yesampula ekhiqiziwe noma ekopishwe kuthempulethi, futhi inikeza isisekelo sokuqagela esisekelwe kumanani onyaka odlule inzuzo enamandla ngokungajwayelekile.

Isinyathelo 4: Hlola izinguquko ezinkulu nokushintshana kwezinyanga okungenzeka

Izinguquko ezinkulu unyaka nonyaka ziyizimpawu eziwusizo zokuxwayisa, kodwa azisho ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuthi kukhona amaphutha. I-notebook iphinde ihlole ukuthi amanani amabili asondelene yini ashintshane izindawo uma eqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.

Ukushintshana okungenzeka kuvela ngoMashi nango-Ephreli 2024, ngo-Okthoba nangoNovemba 2024, nangoMashi nango-Ephreli 2026. Isibonelo, iPort Loko inamanani angu-535 no-313 ngoMashi nango-Ephreli, kanti ukuhleleka kwawo kuyashintsha phakathi kweminyaka. Ukushintshana okunjalo kudala amaphutha amabili amakhulu anyanga zonke nakuba isamba esihlanganisiwe salowo mbhangqwana sihlala singashintshile.

Le nqubo imaka ukushintshana okungenzeka kodwa ayikulungisi. Idatha iyodwa ayikwazi ukuqinisekisa ukuthi yikuphi ukuhleleka okulungile, ngakho imibiko yokuqala kufanele ihlolwe ngaphambi kokwenza ushintsho.

Isinyathelo 5: Gcwalisa amanani angekho okuqeqesha

Lo msebenzi ugcwalisa igebe ngalinye usebenzisa indlela enezigaba ezimbili:

1. Uma isifunda sabika leyo nyanga yekhalenda eminyakeni eminye, sebenzisa isilinganiso samanani atholakalayo.
2. Uma isifunda singakaze siyibike leyo nyanga yekhalenda, yilinganisele ngokuphindaphinda izinga elijwayelekile lesifunda ngephethini yesizini ejwayelekile yaleyo nyanga kuzo zonke izifunda.

Indlela yesibili iyadingeka ezimweni ezifana nePujehun, lapho u-Okthoba kuya kuDisemba bengekho kuyo yonke iminyaka etholakalayo.

Ukuhlola le ndlela, ukuhlaziywa kufihla u-15% wamanani aziwayo ka-Okthoba kuya kuDisemba, kuwagcwalise, bese kuqhathanisa izilinganiso nokubonwayo kwangempela. Kumanani angu-21 afihliwe, iphutha elijwayelekile ngu-8.2% kanti iphutha eliphakathi ngu-7.9%. Lesi yisampula encane yokuqinisekisa kuphela, ngakho lezi zibalo kufanele zithathwe njengesiqondiso esilinganiselwe, hhayi izilinganiso eziqinisekile zokunemba.

Amanani alinganisiwe awaphathwa njengamanani abonwe ngempela. Asetshenziselwa kuphela ukwakha idatha yokuqeqesha imodeli nezici ezisuselwe ekubambezelekeni. Okubonwayo kokuhlola okungekho kuyeqiwa ngesikhathi sokulinganisa, kunokuba kugcwaliswe.

Qagela imithamo yeMeasles

Sebenzisa ukuhlukanisa ukuqeqesha nokuhlola ngokulandelana kwesikhathi

Umbuzo wokuqagela uwukuthi imodeli ingakwazi yini ukubikezela izinyanga ezingu-12 ezilandelayo zemithamo yeMeasles esifundeni ngasinye ngokunemba okungaphezu kokuphinda amanani onyaka odlule.

• Isikhathi sokuqeqesha: Septhemba 2021 kuya ku-Agasti 2025, esihlanganisa izinyanga ezingu-48.
• Isikhathi sokuhlola: Septhemba 2025 kuya ku-Agasti 2026, esihlanganisa izinyanga ezingu-12.
• Okubonwayo okulinganisiwe: amanani okuhlola abikiwe angu-145.

Ukuhlukanisa okungahleliwe bekungavumela okubonwayo kwesikhathi esizayo kuthonye ukuqagela kwezinyanga zangaphambili. Ukuhlukanisa okusekelwe esikhathini kuvimbela lokho kuvuza. Amagebe okuqeqesha agcwaliswa kusetshenziswa ulwazi lwenkathi yokuqeqesha kuphela, kanti amanani okuhlola angabikwanga ka-Okthoba kuya kuDisemba 2025 ayakhishwa ekuhlolweni.

Qhathanisa amamodeli amathathu

• Isilinganiso sesizini esilula: siqagela inani elabonwa kuleyo nyanga onyakeni owandulele.
• SARIMA: ifaka i-SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1,12) ngokwehlukana esifundeni ngasinye. Lokhu kulungiselelwa kwakhethwa ngaphambi kokubona imiphumela yokuhlola futhi akuzange kulungiswe.
• Ukukhulisa i-gradient: kuqeqesha imodeli eyodwa eyabiwe yizo zonke izifunda kusetshenziswa amanani ezinyangeni ezingu-12 nezingu-24 ngaphambili, inyanga yekhalenda, nesifunda. Amanani alinganiswa ngesilinganiso sesifunda ngasinye ukuze izifunda ezinobukhulu obuhlukene zikwazi ukwabelana ngemodeli.

Izici zokukhulisa i-gradient zisebenzisa kuphela okubonwayo okuneminyaka okungenani engu-12 ubudala. Lokhu kubonisa ulwazi olungatholakala lapho kwenziwa ukuqagela okuphelele kwezinyanga ezingu-12 ezizayo.

Humusha i-MAE ne-WAPE

I-notebook ibika izilinganiso ezimbili zokuhlola:

• MAE: iphutha eliphelele elijwayelekile ngemithamo esifundeni-ngenyanga.
• WAPE: iphutha eliphelele eliphelele lihlukaniswe ngemithamo yangempela ephelele. Isibonelo, i-0.036 imele iphutha elingu-3.6%.

Imodeli yesilinganiso sesizini esilula ifinyelela ku-MAE engu-16.1 ne-WAPE engu-3.6%. I-SARIMA inerekhodi le-MAE engu-30.0 ne-WAPE engu-6.6%, kanti ukukhulisa i-gradient kunerekhodi le-MAE engu-32.9 ne-WAPE engu-7.3%.

Lapho uMashi no-Ephreli 2026 bekhishwa, i-WAPE yesilinganiso sesizini esilula yehla yaba ngu-0.8%. I-SARIMA ifinyelela ku-5.4%, kanti ukukhulisa i-gradient kufinyelela ku-5.7%. Ngakho-ke, iningi lephutha lesisekelo livela ekushintshaneni okubonakala phakathi kukaMashi no-Ephreli.

Kungani isisekelo esilula sinqoba

Indlela yesilinganiso sesizini esilula isebenza kahle kakhulu ngoba amanani amaningi enkathini yokuhlola angamakhophi aqondile onyaka odlule. Imodeli ephinda lokho okwabonwa ngonyaka odlule icishe iphelele ngaphansi kwalezi zimo.

I-SARIMA nokukhulisa i-gradient kunalokho kulinganisa amaphethini abanzi kusetshenziswa imijikelezo emine kuphela yonyaka. Zithambisa uchungechunge futhi azikwazi ukukhiqiza amanani akopishiwe aqondile ngokuthembeka okufanayo. Futhi azikwazi ukuqagela ukushintshana kwenyanga esondelene ngokusekelwe kokubonwe ngaphambilini.

Lo mphumela awuqinisekisi ukuthi ukuqagela ngesilinganiso sesizini esilula ngokuvamile kungcono. Ubonisa ukwakheka okungajwayelekile kwale datha yokubonisa. Kudatha yangempela enokwehluka kwangempela unyaka nonyaka, amamodeli athuthuke kakhulu azoba nethuba elinengqondo kakhulu lokuthuthukisa umphumela wesisekelo.

Amathiphu athuthukile okuguqula ukuhamba komsebenzi

Gcina amanani aqashelwe nalawo alinganiselwe ehlukene

Faka noma ugcine ifulegi elicacile kukho konke okuqashelwe okufakiwe. Sebenzisa izilinganiso lapho uchungechunge oluphelele lokuqeqesha ludingeka khona ngokobuchwepheshe, kodwa ungazivezi buthule njengamanani abikiwe. Ukukala kufanele kuqhubeke kusekelwe ekuqashelweni okubikwe ngempela.

Phenya okungajwayelekile esikhundleni sokukulungisa ngokuzenzakalelayo

Imibiko engekho, amanani aphindaphindiwe, izinguquko ezinkulu, nokushintshisana okungenzeka kudinga izimpendulo ezahlukene. Inani elingekho lingalinganiselwa ekumodeleni, kodwa ukushintshana okusobala kwezinyanga kufanele kuqinisekiswe ngemibhalo yomthombo. Ukulungisa okuzenzakalelayo kungashintsha isexwayiso esibonakalayo kube iphutha elifihlekile.

Sebenzisa ukuhlola kwe-rolling-origin

Indawo yokugcina isebenzisa iwindi lokuhlola lezinyanga eziyi-12. Ukuze uthole ukuhlola okuthembeke kakhulu, phinda ukuhlola kumawindi amaningana alandelana ngokwesikhathi. Ukuqeqeshwa kokugijima ngakunye kufanele kusebenzise kuphela idatha ebitholakala ngaphambi kwesikhathi sokubikezela. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi ukusebenza kwemodeli kuzinzile yini ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kunokuba kuncike onyakeni owodwa ongajwayelekile.

Hlala uhlola amamodeli ayinkimbinkimbi

Gcina ukubikezela kwe-seasonal naive ngisho nalapho wengeza amamodeli e-SARIMA alungiselelwe, izici ezintsha, noma amanye ama-algorithm okufunda ngomshini. Indlela eyinkimbinkimbi iwusizo kuphela uma ihlula njalo isisekelo esilula nesithembekile ekusebenzeni emikhakheni engabonwanga.

Engeza ukungaqiniseki lapho usebenza ngedatha yangempela

Izinyathelo eziphakanyisiwe ezilandelayo zihlanganisa ukufaka izikhawu zokubikezela. Ukubikezela kwenani elilodwa kuphela akukhombisi ukungaqiniseki okuvela ekushintsheni okuvamile, kudatha yomlando elinganiselwe, noma ezikhaleni zokuqeqesha ezilinganiselwe.

Yenza ukuhlolwa okuphindaphindwayo kube okuzenzakalelayo

Ukuhlolwa okufanayo kungahlelelwa ukuthi kusebenze ngemva komjikelezo ngamunye wokubika. Inqubo ephindaphindwayo ingabika izifunda-izinyanga ezintsha ezingekho, ukuphindaphindeka okungalindelekile konyaka nonyaka, izinguquko ezinkulu, nezinyanga okusolwa ukuthi zishintshiwe ukuze kubuyekezwe.

Qaphela lapho unweba kwezinye izinkomba

Ngaphambi kokubikezela enye imethrikhi, qinisekisa ukuthi inomlando owanele womjikelezo wayo wesizini. Izinkomba ze-ANC ezitholakalayo zinezinyanga ezingama-20 kuphela eziqala ngoJanuwari 2025, ngakho le phrojekthi ayizisebenzisi ukufunda amaphethini onyaka.

Imikhawulo ebalulekile

• Umthombo uyiseva yedemo, ngakho ukuhlaziya akusho lutho mayelana nezitayela zangempela zokugonywa.
• Ukuqhathanisa kokubikezela kusebenzisa iwindi lokuhlola elilodwa lezinyanga eziyi-12.
• Kubikezelwa i-Measles kuphela.
• Ukumiswa kwe-SARIMA kugxilile kunokuba kulungiswe ngokuhlolwa.
• Ukuqinisekiswa kokugcwalisa izikhala kuqukethe okuqashelwe okufihliwe okungu-21 kuphela.
• Izilinganiso zika-Pujehun zika-Okthoba kuya kuZibandlela zincike emaphethini esizini avela kwezinye izifunda.
• Ukushintshana kwezinyanga okusolwayo kuyamakwa kodwa akulungiswa.

Isiphetho

Le phrojekthi ikhombisa ukuthi ukuhlolwa kwekhwalithi yedatha kufanele kwenzeke ngaphambi kokubikezela. Ukuhlola kwayo kuveza ukushoda okuhlelekile, ukuphindaphindeka okukhulu konyaka nonyaka, nokushintshana okungenzeka kwezinyanga eziseduze okuthinta kakhulu amanani aphelele nokuhlolwa kwamamodeli.

Qala ngokusebenzisa i-notebook ngokumelene nesithombe esigciniwe, uhlole isigaba ngasinye sokuhlola, bese unika amandla ukuvuselelwa kwe-API kuphela lapho usulungele ukusebenzisa umthombo we-DHIS2 ovunyiwe. Lapho uguqula ukuhamba komsebenzi, gcina ukuhlola okulandelana ngokwesikhathi, lebula amanani alinganiselwe, qinisekisa okungajwayelekile ngemibiko yomthombo, futhi uqhathanise yonke imodeli nesisekelo sesizini esiqondile.